• Pourquoi le déficit ne diminue pas

    Pourquoi le déficit ne diminue pas

    Le Monde.fr | <time datetime="2014-09-03T17:51:31+02:00" itemprop="datePublished">03.09.2014 à 17h51</time> • Mis à jour le <time datetime="2014-09-09T09:54:26+02:00" itemprop="dateModified">09.09.2014 à 09h54</time> |Par Maxime Vaudano et Samuel Laurent

    C’est une promesse qui dure, faite par Nicolas Sarkozy comme par François Hollande, entérinée devant l’Union européenne et maintes fois rappelée : l’objectif de la France est de réduire ses déficits afin de se mettre en conformité avec ses obligations européennes.

    Règle d’or, pacte de stabilité et de croissance et projets de loi de finances le rappellent constamment : toute la politique économique du pays vise à ramenerles comptes publics sinon à l’équilibre, du moins dans les limites fixées par Bruxelles, définies par les fameux « critères de Maastricht » :

     

    • le déficit public doit être inférieur à 3 %

    • la dette publique ne doit pas dépasser la barre des 60 % du PIB.

    Mais malgré les annonces, les ministres et les promesses, l’objectif semble s’éloigner chaque année. Retour sur ce déficit qui ne diminue pas.

    1. La dette publique atteint des sommets

    Depuis 1974, l’Etat français, qu’il s’agisse de l’administration centrale, des collectivités territoriales ou de la Sécurité sociale, dépense plus qu’il ne gagne, et accumule donc une dette, puisqu’il emprunte de l’argent sur les marchés financiers pour assurer ses dépenses courantes.

    Depuis la crise de 2008, la dette de l’Etat français n’a pas diminué. Elle a atteint 93,4 % du PIB en 2013 :

    Est-ce grave ? La question prête à débat. Mais dans tous les cas, la France, membre de l’Union européenne et de la zone euro, doit en principe se tenir à certains ratios.

    Depuis la crise de 2008, les pays membres de la zone euro se sont engagés sur des trajectoires de redressement des finances, pour rassurer les marchés financiers en maintenant des finances cohérentes et assurer la stabilité de la monnaie unique. François Hollande y a souscrit dès son élection, et le gouvernement s’emploie donc à diminuer les dépenses et augmenter les recettes. Avec un succès mitigé.

    Vidéo suggérée sur le même sujet

    • Le ministre allemand des finances appelle la France à "agir au plus vite" sur le déficit budgétaire

      Le ministre allemand des Finances, Wolfgang Schauble, a rencontré Michel Sapin, jeudi à Bercy, avant de se rendre à l'université d'été du Medef. Il a soutenu le cap engagé par la France tout en restant ferme : "Il faut agir au plus vite pour réduire les déficits structurels. [...] Nous avons besoin de réformes ambitieuses".

      0:0

    2. Des objectifs sans cesse revus à la baisse

    Dès avant son élection, M. Hollande avait voulu afficher son volontarisme quant au redressement des comptes. Il promettait donc, tableaux chiffrés à l’appui, deramener le déficit à zéro en 2017. Pour ce faire, il se basait sur des hypothèses quelque peu optimistes.

    Un budget est en effet construit en fonction de nombreuses variables, dont la principale est la croissance économique, qui conditionne les rentrées fiscales, mais aussi une bonne part des dépenses.

    2 %M. Hollande et son équipe, résolument optimistes, tablaient sur une croissance de 1,7 % dès 2013, puis de 2 % à 2,5 % jusqu’en 2017. Las, la réalité a été très largement en deçà : 0,3 % en 2013, une prévision à 0,5 % pour 2014, et à moins de 2 % pour les années qui suivent.

    L’Etat a peu à peu revu à la baisse ses ambitions, et modifié constamment ses prévisions et ses objectifs.

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style="font-size:10pt;font-weight:bold;font-family:arial;color:#000;fill:#000;" x="3" y="17" zindex="1"><tspan></tspan></text></g><g style="cursor:default;" transform="translate(175,135)" zindex="1"><text style="font-size:10pt;font-weight:bold;font-family:arial;color:#000;fill:#000;" x="3" y="17" zindex="1"><tspan></tspan></text></g><g style="cursor:default;" transform="translate(260,93)" zindex="1"><text style="font-size:10pt;font-weight:bold;font-family:arial;color:#000;fill:#000;" x="3" y="17" zindex="1"><tspan></tspan></text></g><g style="cursor:default;" transform="translate(333,56)" zindex="1"><text style="font-size:10pt;font-weight:bold;font-family:arial;color:#000;fill:#000;" x="3" y="17" zindex="1"><tspan></tspan></text></g><g style="cursor:default;" transform="translate(412,33)" zindex="1"><text style="font-size:10pt;font-weight:bold;font-family:arial;color:#000;fill:#000;" x="3" y="17" zindex="1"><tspan></tspan></text></g></g><g class="highcharts-data-labels 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transform="translate(187,195)" zindex="1"><text style="font-size:10pt;font-weight:bold;font-family:arial;color:#000;fill:#000;" x="3" y="17" zindex="1"><tspan></tspan></text></g><g style="cursor:default;" transform="translate(271,140)" zindex="1"><text style="font-size:10pt;font-weight:bold;font-family:arial;color:#000;fill:#000;" x="3" y="17" zindex="1"><tspan></tspan></text></g><g style="cursor:default;" transform="translate(0,-999)" zindex="1"><text style="font-size:10pt;font-weight:bold;font-family:arial;color:#000;fill:#000;" x="3" y="17" zindex="1"></text></g><g style="cursor:default;" transform="translate(0,-999)" zindex="1"><text style="font-size:10pt;font-weight:bold;font-family:arial;color:#000;fill:#000;" x="3" y="17" zindex="1"></text></g></g><g class="highcharts-axis-labels highcharts-xaxis-labels" zindex="7"><text opacity="1" style="width:59px;color:#606060;cursor:default;font-size:11px;fill:#606060;" text-anchor="middle" x="88.58333333333334" y="93">2012</text><text 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opacity="1" style="width:156px;color:#606060;cursor:default;font-size:11px;fill:#606060;" text-anchor="end" x="34" y="342.3333333333333"><tspan>-5 %</tspan></text><text opacity="1" style="width:156px;color:#606060;cursor:default;font-size:11px;fill:#606060;" text-anchor="end" x="34" y="296.1666666666667"><tspan>-4 %</tspan></text><text opacity="1" style="width:156px;color:#606060;cursor:default;font-size:11px;fill:#606060;" text-anchor="end" x="34" y="250"><tspan>-3 %</tspan></text><text opacity="1" style="width:156px;color:#606060;cursor:default;font-size:11px;fill:#606060;" text-anchor="end" x="34" y="203.83333333333334"><tspan>-2 %</tspan></text><text opacity="1" style="width:156px;color:#606060;cursor:default;font-size:11px;fill:#606060;" text-anchor="end" x="34" y="157.66666666666669"><tspan>-1 %</tspan></text><text opacity="1" style="width:156px;color:#606060;cursor:default;font-size:11px;fill:#606060;" text-anchor="end" x="34" y="111.5"><tspan>0 %</tspan></text></g></svg>

    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stroke="#FFFFFF" stroke-width="1" width="19" x="429.5" y="21.5"></rect></g><g class="highcharts-markers" clip-path="none" transform="translate(57,76) scale(1 1)" visibility="hidden" zindex="0.1"></g></g><text class="highcharts-title" style="color:#333333;font-size:18px;font-family:"TheSerifOffice", arial;fill:#333333;width:470px;" text-anchor="middle" x="267" y="20" zindex="4"><tspan>Le poids de la dette publique (en % du PIB)</tspan></text><text class="highcharts-subtitle" style="color:rgb(66,146,198);font-weight:bold;font-family:arial;font-size:10pt;fill:rgb(66,146,198);width:470px;" text-anchor="middle" x="267" y="50" zindex="4"><tspan>3. Deuxième programme de stabilité du gouvernement (2014-2017) - avril</tspan><tspan dy="17" x="267">2014</tspan></text><g class="highcharts-data-labels highcharts-tracker" opacity="1" transform="translate(57,76) scale(1 1)" visibility="hidden" zindex="6"><g style="cursor:default;" transform="translate(15,12)" zindex="1"><text style="font-size:10pt;font-weight:bold;font-family:arial;color:#000;fill:#000;" x="3" y="17" zindex="1"><tspan></tspan></text></g><g style="cursor:default;" transform="translate(93,12)" zindex="1"><text style="font-size:10pt;font-weight:bold;font-family:arial;color:#000;fill:#000;" x="3" y="17" zindex="1"><tspan></tspan></text></g><g style="cursor:default;" transform="translate(171,14)" zindex="1"><text style="font-size:10pt;font-weight:bold;font-family:arial;color:#000;fill:#000;" x="3" y="17" zindex="1"><tspan></tspan></text></g><g style="cursor:default;" transform="translate(249,17)" zindex="1"><text style="font-size:10pt;font-weight:bold;font-family:arial;color:#000;fill:#000;" x="3" y="17" zindex="1"><tspan></tspan></text></g><g style="cursor:default;" transform="translate(327,22)" zindex="1"><text style="font-size:10pt;font-weight:bold;font-family:arial;color:#000;fill:#000;" x="3" y="17" zindex="1"><tspan></tspan></text></g><g style="cursor:default;" transform="translate(404,28)" zindex="1"><text style="font-size:10pt;font-weight:bold;font-family:arial;color:#000;fill:#000;" x="3" y="17" zindex="1"><tspan></tspan></text></g></g><g class="highcharts-data-labels highcharts-tracker" opacity="1" transform="translate(57,76) scale(1 1)" visibility="hidden" zindex="6"><g style="cursor:default;" transform="translate(15,9)" zindex="1"><text style="font-size:10pt;font-weight:bold;font-family:arial;color:#000;fill:#000;" x="3" y="17" zindex="1"><tspan></tspan></text></g><g style="cursor:default;" transform="translate(93,2)" zindex="1"><text style="font-size:10pt;font-weight:bold;font-family:arial;color:#000;fill:#000;" x="3" y="17" zindex="1"><tspan></tspan></text></g><g style="cursor:default;" transform="translate(171,1)" zindex="1"><text style="font-size:10pt;font-weight:bold;font-family:arial;color:#000;fill:#000;" x="3" y="17" zindex="1"><tspan></tspan></text></g><g style="cursor:default;" transform="translate(249,4)" zindex="1"><text style="font-size:10pt;font-weight:bold;font-family:arial;color:#000;fill:#000;" x="3" y="17" zindex="1"><tspan></tspan></text></g><g style="cursor:default;" transform="translate(327,8)" zindex="1"><text style="font-size:10pt;font-weight:bold;font-family:arial;color:#000;fill:#000;" x="3" y="17" zindex="1"><tspan></tspan></text></g><g style="cursor:default;" transform="translate(404,13)" zindex="1"><text style="font-size:10pt;font-weight:bold;font-family:arial;color:#000;fill:#000;" x="3" y="17" zindex="1"><tspan></tspan></text></g></g><g class="highcharts-data-labels highcharts-tracker" opacity="1" transform="translate(57,76) scale(1 1)" visibility="visible" zindex="6"><g style="cursor:default;" transform="translate(15,8)" zindex="1"><text style="font-size:10pt;font-weight:bold;font-family:arial;color:#000;fill:#000;" x="3" y="17" zindex="1"><tspan>90.6 %</tspan></text></g><g style="cursor:default;" transform="translate(93,2)" zindex="1"><text style="font-size:10pt;font-weight:bold;font-family:arial;color:#000;fill:#000;" x="3" y="17" zindex="1"><tspan>93.5 %</tspan></text></g><g style="cursor:default;" transform="translate(171,19)" zindex="1"><text style="font-size:10pt;font-weight:bold;font-family:arial;color:#000;fill:#000;" x="3" y="17" zindex="1"><tspan>95.6 %</tspan></text></g><g style="cursor:default;" transform="translate(249,19)" zindex="1"><text style="font-size:10pt;font-weight:bold;font-family:arial;color:#000;fill:#000;" x="3" y="17" zindex="1"><tspan>95.6 %</tspan></text></g><g style="cursor:default;" transform="translate(327,1)" zindex="1"><text style="font-size:10pt;font-weight:bold;font-family:arial;color:#000;fill:#000;" x="3" y="17" zindex="1"><tspan>94.2 %</tspan></text></g><g style="cursor:default;" transform="translate(404,5)" zindex="1"><text style="font-size:10pt;font-weight:bold;font-family:arial;color:#000;fill:#000;" x="3" y="17" zindex="1"><tspan>91.9 %</tspan></text></g></g><g class="highcharts-data-labels highcharts-tracker" opacity="1" transform="translate(57,76) scale(1 1)" visibility="hidden" zindex="6"><g style="cursor:default;" transform="translate(26,12)" zindex="1"><text style="font-size:10pt;font-weight:bold;font-family:arial;color:#000;fill:#000;" x="3" y="17" zindex="1"><tspan></tspan></text></g><g style="cursor:default;" transform="translate(104,6)" zindex="1"><text style="font-size:10pt;font-weight:bold;font-family:arial;color:#000;fill:#000;" x="3" y="17" zindex="1"><tspan></tspan></text></g><g style="cursor:default;" transform="translate(182,1)" zindex="1"><text style="font-size:10pt;font-weight:bold;font-family:arial;color:#000;fill:#000;" x="3" y="17" zindex="1"><tspan></tspan></text></g><g style="cursor:default;" transform="translate(260,20)" zindex="1"><text style="font-size:10pt;font-weight:bold;font-family:arial;color:#000;fill:#000;" x="3" y="17" zindex="1"><tspan></tspan></text></g><g style="cursor:default;" transform="translate(344,20)" zindex="1"><text style="font-size:10pt;font-weight:bold;font-family:arial;color:#000;fill:#000;" x="3" y="17" zindex="1"><tspan></tspan></text></g><g style="cursor:default;" transform="translate(421,1)" zindex="1"><text style="font-size:10pt;font-weight:bold;font-family:arial;color:#000;fill:#000;" x="3" y="17" zindex="1"><tspan></tspan></text></g></g><g class="highcharts-axis-labels highcharts-xaxis-labels" zindex="7"><text opacity="1" style="width:58px;color:#606060;cursor:default;font-size:11px;fill:#606060;" text-anchor="middle" x="95.91666666666666" y="300">2012</text><text opacity="1" style="width:58px;color:#606060;cursor:default;font-size:11px;fill:#606060;" text-anchor="middle" x="173.75" y="300">2013</text><text opacity="1" style="width:58px;color:#606060;cursor:default;font-size:11px;fill:#606060;" text-anchor="middle" x="251.58333333333334" y="300">2014</text><text opacity="1" style="width:58px;color:#606060;cursor:default;font-size:11px;fill:#606060;" text-anchor="middle" x="329.41666666666663" y="300">2015</text><text opacity="1" style="width:58px;color:#606060;cursor:default;font-size:11px;fill:#606060;" text-anchor="middle" x="407.25" y="300">2016</text><text opacity="1" style="width:58px;color:#606060;cursor:default;font-size:11px;fill:#606060;" text-anchor="middle" x="485.0833333333333" y="300">2017</text></g><g class="highcharts-axis-labels highcharts-yaxis-labels" zindex="7"><text opacity="1" style="width:156px;color:#606060;cursor:default;font-size:11px;fill:#606060;" text-anchor="end" x="42" y="283.5"><tspan>0 %</tspan></text><text opacity="1" style="width:156px;color:#606060;cursor:default;font-size:11px;fill:#606060;" text-anchor="end" x="42" y="234.92857142857144"><tspan>25 %</tspan></text><text opacity="1" style="width:156px;color:#606060;cursor:default;font-size:11px;fill:#606060;" text-anchor="end" x="42" y="186.35714285714286"><tspan>50 %</tspan></text><text opacity="1" style="width:156px;color:#606060;cursor:default;font-size:11px;fill:#606060;" text-anchor="end" x="42" y="137.78571428571428"><tspan>75 %</tspan></text><text opacity="1" style="width:156px;color:#606060;cursor:default;font-size:11px;fill:#606060;" text-anchor="end" x="42" y="89.21428571428572"><tspan>100 %</tspan></text></g></svg>

      


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Deuxième programme de stabilité du gouvernement (2014-2017) - avril</tspan><tspan dy="17" x="267">2014</tspan></text><g class="highcharts-data-labels highcharts-tracker" opacity="1" transform="translate(43,76) scale(1 1)" visibility="hidden" zindex="6"><g style="cursor:default;" transform="translate(20,150)" zindex="1"><text style="font-size:10pt;font-weight:bold;font-family:arial;color:#000;fill:#000;" x="3" y="17" zindex="1"><tspan></tspan></text></g><g style="cursor:default;" transform="translate(100,68)" zindex="1"><text style="font-size:10pt;font-weight:bold;font-family:arial;color:#000;fill:#000;" x="3" y="17" zindex="1"><tspan></tspan></text></g><g style="cursor:default;" transform="translate(186,48)" zindex="1"><text style="font-size:10pt;font-weight:bold;font-family:arial;color:#000;fill:#000;" x="3" y="17" zindex="1"><tspan></tspan></text></g><g style="cursor:default;" transform="translate(256,31)" zindex="1"><text style="font-size:10pt;font-weight:bold;font-family:arial;color:#000;fill:#000;" x="3" y="17" zindex="1"><tspan></tspan></text></g><g style="cursor:default;" transform="translate(337,31)" zindex="1"><text style="font-size:10pt;font-weight:bold;font-family:arial;color:#000;fill:#000;" x="3" y="17" zindex="1"><tspan></tspan></text></g><g style="cursor:default;" transform="translate(417,31)" zindex="1"><text style="font-size:10pt;font-weight:bold;font-family:arial;color:#000;fill:#000;" x="3" y="17" zindex="1"><tspan></tspan></text></g></g><g class="highcharts-data-labels highcharts-tracker" opacity="1" transform="translate(43,76) scale(1 1)" visibility="hidden" zindex="6"><g style="cursor:default;" transform="translate(26,183)" zindex="1"><text style="font-size:10pt;font-weight:bold;font-family:arial;color:#000;fill:#000;" x="3" y="17" zindex="1"><tspan></tspan></text></g><g style="cursor:default;" transform="translate(100,177)" zindex="1"><text style="font-size:10pt;font-weight:bold;font-family:arial;color:#000;fill:#000;" x="3" y="17" zindex="1"><tspan></tspan></text></g><g style="cursor:default;" transform="translate(180,102)" zindex="1"><text style="font-size:10pt;font-weight:bold;font-family:arial;color:#000;fill:#000;" x="3" y="17" zindex="1"><tspan></tspan></text></g><g style="cursor:default;" transform="translate(266,48)" zindex="1"><text style="font-size:10pt;font-weight:bold;font-family:arial;color:#000;fill:#000;" x="3" y="17" zindex="1"><tspan></tspan></text></g><g style="cursor:default;" transform="translate(347,48)" zindex="1"><text style="font-size:10pt;font-weight:bold;font-family:arial;color:#000;fill:#000;" x="3" y="17" zindex="1"><tspan></tspan></text></g><g style="cursor:default;" transform="translate(427,48)" zindex="1"><text style="font-size:10pt;font-weight:bold;font-family:arial;color:#000;fill:#000;" x="3" y="17" zindex="1"><tspan></tspan></text></g></g><g class="highcharts-data-labels highcharts-tracker" opacity="1" transform="translate(43,76) scale(1 1)" visibility="visible" zindex="6"><g style="cursor:default;" transform="translate(26,183)" zindex="1"><text style="font-size:10pt;font-weight:bold;font-family:arial;color:#000;fill:#000;" x="3" y="17" zindex="1"><tspan>0 %</tspan></text></g><g style="cursor:default;" transform="translate(100,164)" zindex="1"><text style="font-size:10pt;font-weight:bold;font-family:arial;color:#000;fill:#000;" x="3" y="17" zindex="1"><tspan>0.3 %</tspan></text></g><g style="cursor:default;" transform="translate(186,116)" zindex="1"><text style="font-size:10pt;font-weight:bold;font-family:arial;color:#000;fill:#000;" x="3" y="17" zindex="1"><tspan>1 %</tspan></text></g><g style="cursor:default;" transform="translate(260,68)" zindex="1"><text style="font-size:10pt;font-weight:bold;font-family:arial;color:#000;fill:#000;" x="3" y="17" zindex="1"><tspan>1.7 %</tspan></text></g><g style="cursor:default;" transform="translate(337,31)" zindex="1"><text style="font-size:10pt;font-weight:bold;font-family:arial;color:#000;fill:#000;" x="3" y="17" zindex="1"><tspan>2.25 %</tspan></text></g><g style="cursor:default;" transform="translate(417,31)" zindex="1"><text style="font-size:10pt;font-weight:bold;font-family:arial;color:#000;fill:#000;" x="3" y="17" zindex="1"><tspan>2.25 %</tspan></text></g></g><g class="highcharts-data-labels highcharts-tracker" opacity="1" transform="translate(43,76) scale(1 1)" visibility="hidden" zindex="6"><g style="cursor:default;" transform="translate(31,164)" zindex="1"><text style="font-size:10pt;font-weight:bold;font-family:arial;color:#000;fill:#000;" x="3" y="17" zindex="1"><tspan></tspan></text></g><g style="cursor:default;" transform="translate(112,164)" zindex="1"><text style="font-size:10pt;font-weight:bold;font-family:arial;color:#000;fill:#000;" x="3" y="17" zindex="1"><tspan></tspan></text></g><g style="cursor:default;" transform="translate(192,136)" zindex="1"><text style="font-size:10pt;font-weight:bold;font-family:arial;color:#000;fill:#000;" x="3" y="17" zindex="1"><tspan></tspan></text></g><g style="cursor:default;" transform="translate(272,89)" zindex="1"><text style="font-size:10pt;font-weight:bold;font-family:arial;color:#000;fill:#000;" x="3" y="17" zindex="1"><tspan></tspan></text></g><g style="cursor:default;" transform="translate(352,68)" zindex="1"><text style="font-size:10pt;font-weight:bold;font-family:arial;color:#000;fill:#000;" x="3" y="17" zindex="1"><tspan></tspan></text></g><g style="cursor:default;" transform="translate(432,62)" zindex="1"><text style="font-size:10pt;font-weight:bold;font-family:arial;color:#000;fill:#000;" x="3" y="17" zindex="1"><tspan></tspan></text></g></g><g class="highcharts-axis-labels highcharts-xaxis-labels" zindex="7"><text opacity="1" style="width:60px;color:#606060;cursor:default;font-size:11px;fill:#606060;" text-anchor="middle" x="83.08333333333334" y="300">2012</text><text opacity="1" style="width:60px;color:#606060;cursor:default;font-size:11px;fill:#606060;" text-anchor="middle" x="163.25" y="300">2013</text><text opacity="1" style="width:60px;color:#606060;cursor:default;font-size:11px;fill:#606060;" text-anchor="middle" x="243.41666666666666" y="300">2014</text><text opacity="1" style="width:60px;color:#606060;cursor:default;font-size:11px;fill:#606060;" text-anchor="middle" x="323.58333333333337" y="300">2015</text><text opacity="1" style="width:60px;color:#606060;cursor:default;font-size:11px;fill:#606060;" text-anchor="middle" x="403.75" y="300">2016</text><text opacity="1" style="width:60px;color:#606060;cursor:default;font-size:11px;fill:#606060;" text-anchor="middle" x="483.9166666666667" y="300">2017</text></g><g class="highcharts-axis-labels highcharts-yaxis-labels" zindex="7"><text opacity="1" style="width:156px;color:#606060;cursor:default;font-size:11px;fill:#606060;" text-anchor="end" x="28" y="283.5"><tspan>0 %</tspan></text><text opacity="1" style="width:156px;color:#606060;cursor:default;font-size:11px;fill:#606060;" text-anchor="end" x="28" y="215.5"><tspan>1 %</tspan></text><text opacity="1" style="width:156px;color:#606060;cursor:default;font-size:11px;fill:#606060;" text-anchor="end" x="28" y="147.5"><tspan>2 %</tspan></text><text opacity="1" style="width:156px;color:#606060;cursor:default;font-size:11px;fill:#606060;" text-anchor="end" x="28" y="79.5"><tspan>3 %</tspan></text></g></svg>

      

    Sources : FMIInsee60 engagements de François Hollande, programmes de stabilité 2013-2017 et 2014-2017.

    3. Des dépenses qui ne diminuent pas

    La question clé de cette politique réside dans la volonté de diminuer les dépenses de l’Etat. De Michel Sapin à Pierre Moscovici, tous ont affiché leur volontarisme, promettant des dizaines de milliards d’euros d’économies.

    Mais là encore, il leur a bien souvent fallu reculer. Au départ, 21 milliards d’euros d’économies étaient promis pour 2015. le ministre des finances, Michel Sapin, vient d’annoncer que le gouvernement ne pourrait finalement en réaliserque 19 milliards, reportant les efforts vers les deux dernières années du quinquennat.

    <figure class="illustration_haut " style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 15px; position: relative; width: 534px;">Le plan d'économies de 50 milliards d'euros.</figure>

    La volonté du gouvernement n’est pas entièrement responsable de ces reculades. Encore une fois, les économies réalisées dépendent elles aussi ducontexte général. Si la croissance n’est pas là, le chômage est plus haut, donc coûte plus cher, et ainsi de suite.

    Néanmoins, les gouvernements de la présidence Hollande ont aussi dûcomposer avec une politique double, faite à la fois de baisses des dépenses et d’incitations en faveur des entreprises – comme le crédit d’impôt pour la compétitivité et l'emploi (CICE) – qui représentent un coût certain pour les finances publiques.

    De même, certaines mesures prévues, comme l’écotaxe poids lourds, et repoussées face à la contestation, représentent un manque à gagner qu’il faut donc compenser.

    4. Le casse-tête de l’inflation

     Dernier paramètre à prendre en compte : la hausse des prix. Comme tout débiteur, l’Etat a en effet tout à gagner à l’inflation (modérée) : plutôt que dediminuer certains postes budgétaires, il se contentait bien souvent ces dernières années de les geler en valeur, c’est-à-dire d’y affecter la même somme d’une année sur l’autre. L’inflation équivalait alors à une baisse.

    0,5 %Mais l’inflation ralentit fortement en zone euro et en France, où elle devrait s'établir à 0,5 % cette année. Ce sera d’ailleurs la raison principale de l’échec du gouvernement à économiser 21 milliards d’euros en 2015, selon Michel Sapin. En effet, il comptait notamment économiser de l’argent en gelant les prestations sociales, plutôt que de les ajuster à l’inflation comme d’habitude :

    <figure class="illustration_haut " style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 15px; position: relative; width: 534px;">Les économies liées au gel des prestations sociales expliquées.</figure>

    Plus généralement, la critique qui est faite par certains économistes, non seulement en France mais à l'étranger, est qu’à force de réduire les dépenses, on tend à handicaper la croissance, et donc à ralentir la capacité à réduire les déficits. C’est le message que tentait de faire passer Arnaud Montebourg, et qui hérisse une partie des députés socialistes.


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